ECI: Trump’s Iran deal is a historic mistake

Brussels, June 17th, 2026 – As the G7 summit in Évian, France comes to a close today on Wednesday, the leaders who are attending the summit are not the only ones to have written history in this posh lakeside resort. The Royal Hotel, which is overlooking the majestic Alps and Lake Geneva, was the location of another significant international conference in July 1938. The conference, which was called together by US President Franklin Roosevelt, was faced with the growing threat of Nazi Germany which had annexed Austria in March and created an acute refugee problem. The conference was faced with a dilemma. Should they confront Hitler head on or was it sufficient to simply solve the refugee problem? For roughly 300,000 to 400,000 Jews trapped in Germany and Nazi-occupied Austria this was a question of life or death as they sought refuge elsewhere in the world. But the conference failed. None of the 32 countries gathered, except for the tiny Dominican Republic, expressed any interest in receiving the fleeing Jews. Hitler was not confronted but simply ignored.

The rest is history. Just months later in September British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared the famous “peace in our time” statement as he struck a peace agreement with Hitler in Munich. However, what followed was anything but peace. Just days after the Munich agreement Nazi Germany occupied the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia and the following year, in September 1939, the Nazis invaded Poland in what would mark the beginning of World War II and the loss of some 80 million lives. What began as a posh international conference in Évian in July 1938 ended with hell from 1939 to 1945.

“For a European grassroots movement it would be a failure of historical proportions to not sound the alarm about what we have witnessed on the international scene in the last few days”, says ECI Founding Director Tomas Sandell. “The current fixation of the US administration that anything can be solved with a good deal is an illusion which is not backed up by historic evidence,” he noted. “Nazi Germany, which was given a free pass in Évian in July 1938, had to be militarily defeated and unconditionally surrender before Europe could experience the longest period of peace and prosperity in modern history. With the current Memorandum of Understanding, to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, the existential threat to our allies in the Middle East remains in place while the terrorist activities by Iranian and Russian proxies are expected to escalate on European soil. But most importantly, the agreement ignores the fate of the brave people of Iran who unarmed and cut off from the world through an 88-day internet blackout, have been fighting for their freedom after 47 years of a repressive Islamic regime.”

Sandell concluded by stating that, “this is the same regime which murdered forty thousand of its own people within just 48 hours and continues to execute dissidents and opposition leaders. Neither the United States, nor Europe can compromise our most fundamental values and principles for a peace which cannot hold.”

Six years ago Donald Trump posted on X that “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation.” Critics of the deal fear that Trump may have been the latest victim of these negotiating tactics as under the agreement the Islamic Republic is expected to receive a $300 billion reconstruction fund. In the run up to G7 Britain, France, Germany and Italy jointly declared that they were ready to lift sanctions on Iran once a deal has been signed.

Spanish MEP Antonio López-Istúriz White summarised the Memorandum of Understanding best when he in a debate in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday stated that “the oil industry and the supporters of the Iranian regime are the ones which are the happiest with this deal. But it is no peace deal. The theocratic regime in Tehran has learnt how to blackmail the West by using the Strait of Hormuz as a hostage. This will not lead to peace. A campaign of new terrorist attacks is to be expected in Israel, the Gulf countries, and here in Europe. For the mullahs the timing of the agreement was essential. They don’t have midterm elections, they don’t care about markets and they don’t care about the loss of human lives.”

He concluded by saying that “this is a wake-up call for Europe similar to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To avoid what is coming against us we must immediately coordinate our defence and security efforts. We must help our allies in the region who understand better than we that we are facing an existential threat.”

The Memorandum of Understanding which will be signed near Lucerne, Switzerland on Friday lays out the terms of the ceasefire between the USA and Iran. The 14-point memorandum has not yet been officially released but leaked to the press. Under the draft agreement, the US will allow Iran to sell its oil and may receive a $300 billion development fund if it meets its commitments related to its nuclear programme in further negotiations. Once signed it will trigger a 60-day window to negotiate the final terms of the deal.

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